‘Backs to the wall’: Myanmar military prepares to mark Armed Forces Day

As troops parade in Naypyidaw, questions are being asked about a military under pressure from anticoup forces.

The Myanmar military will mark Armed Forces Day on Wednesday with its usual parade in the purpose-built capital of Naypyidaw. Thousands of armed troops from all three branches will march in formation, while tanks roll through the streets and fighter jets screech overhead.

But the show of strength will do little to paper over the reality – Myanmar’s military is at its weakest point in decades. Perhaps not since 1949, when the Karen National Union captured the Insein neighbourhood, in the then-capital Yangon, has the military been so humiliated on the battlefield.

Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in a 2021 coup, is expected to lead the festivities, despite presiding over the recent loss of huge swathes of territory and facing unprecedented calls for him to step down, even within pro-military circles.

“He has become the most unpopular commander-in-chief among [the] rank and file in Tatmadaw history,” said Min Zaw Oo, the executive director at the think tank Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, using the formal name for the Myanmar military.

Min Aung Hlaing seized power after Aung San Suu Kyi led the National League for Democracy to a landslide election victory in 2020, with the military then killing hundreds of protesters who took to the streets calling for them to go. The bloody crackdowns inspired an armed revolt, both in the long-restive borderlands where ethnic minorities have fought for political autonomy for decades and in the previously peaceful heartland where the Bamar ethnic majority live.