Attention variable-rate mortgage borrowers: Hikes are coming

Homeowners who have opted for a variable rate mortgage over a fixed-rate one are likely cheering the Bank of Canada’s decision on Wednesday to hold steady on its key lending rate.

Homeowners who have opted for a variable rate mortgage over a fixed-rate one are likely cheering the Bank of Canada’s decision on Wednesday to hold steady on its key lending rate.

But those same homeowners should start preparing for their mortgage payments to rise starting as early as March.

Bloomberg data shows the market is now pricing in a 100 per cent chance of a rate increase from the central bank at its March meeting, and as many as six hikes for this year overall, which would bring the Bank of Canada’s benchmark policy rate to 1.75 per cent.

“Our message today is interest rates are on a rising path and will feed through to mortgage rates and likely moderate demand [for housing] over time,” said Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, during a press conference Wednesday.

Record low rates have been a major factor in driving housing market activity and home prices to new heights in regions across the country during the pandemic. It has also fueled a surge in demand for variable rate mortgages, according to experts.

However, after being a major driver of economic growth, the bank is forecasting the real estate sector will drag on Canada's gross domestic product this year by 0.7 percentage points as higher rates impact demand.