Astronomers Are Keeping an Eye on This Asteroid’s Odds of Hitting Earth
The New York Times
Researchers say there’s a 1.3 percent chance that the space rock 2024 YR4 could strike our planet — but not until December 2032.
You may hear about a large asteroid headed toward Earth. Don’t panic.
Just after Christmas Day, astronomers spotted something zipping away from Earth: a rock somewhere between 130 feet and 330 feet long that they named 2024 YR4. Over the next few weeks, they simulated its possible future orbits. They now say, based on the most up-to-date information, that there is a 1.3 percent chance that this asteroid will strike somewhere on Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
Should this keep you up at night?
“No, absolutely not,” said David Rankin, a comet and asteroid spotter at the University of Arizona.
The object’s current odds of striking Earth may sound scary — and it’s fair to say that an asteroid in this size range has the potential to cause harm. Should it strike a city, the damage would not cause anything close to a mass extinction, but the damage to the city itself would be catastrophic.
But a 1.3 percent chance of a hit is also a 98.7 percent chance of a miss. “It’s not a number you want to ignore, but it’s not a number you need to lose sleep over,” Mr. Rankin said.
