As Ukraine war hits 1,000 days, uncertainty for what lies ahead

After 1,000 days of death and destruction with no end in sight, consensus is growing that the war will end through peace talks, but what that looks like remains to be seen.

It was 1,000 days ago that Russia launched its full-scale invasion into Ukraine, and the grim milestone arrives with uncertainty and trepidation over what could come next.

The war has been in an effective stalemate for several months, with little movement on the front lines while death and destruction continue to mount. With the international focus increasingly centring on the need for a diplomatic settlement to stop the bloodshed, a change in U.S. administration from President Joe Biden to president-elect Donald Trump has shifted the political calculus for Ukraine’s western allies and raised questions about what negotiations could look like.

Not even a reported change in U.S. posture — allowing Ukraine to use American-supplied long-range weapons to strike within Russian territory — is expected to change the outlook on the battlefield.

“This is an attempt by the Biden administration — by Biden himself — really to do what he can before he leaves office to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position in the inevitable peace talks that are coming,” said Andrew Rasiulis, a senior fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and former defence official in the federal government, about the long-range weapons decision, which has not been publicly confirmed by U.S. or Ukrainian officials.

For Ukraine itself, the stated goal remains the same as it was 1,000 days ago: defend its territorial integrity and achieve a lasting peace.

The next few months, diplomats and analysts agree, will be decisive — and the hunger for an end to the war is palpable.

“The Ukrainian people have suffered enough,” said Oleh Nikolenko, Ukraine’s consul general in Toronto. “We don’t want another 1,000 days.”

Both Ukraine and Russia have kept their military casualty numbers closely guarded, and western intelligence reports have offered varying estimates, leaving exact numbers unclear. There is a consensus among those reports that, at a minimum, tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed on both sides.