Analysis: Why Venezuela’s military holds the key to country’s future

Whether Trump or Rodriguez, running Venezuela will need the help of its military, which has incentives to strike a deal.

For almost 27 years, the Venezuelan military – formally known as the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) – was a firm ally to presidents Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro, as they systematically drifted from seeking an alternative to Western liberal democracy, and towards authoritarianism.

The FANB helped the Venezuelan government dismantle the institutions of the previous political establishment and persecute its most fervent opponents. In exchange, the governments of Chavez and Maduro, respectively, gave more and more power to the military within Venezuelan politics, offering them ministerial positions, governorships, embassies and other leadership roles such as mayoralties or the administration of state-run enterprises.

Now, with the abduction of Maduro by United States special forces last Saturday, the military’s image as a protector of the Venezuelan state has taken a hit: The deposed president was kidnapped from the largest Venezuelan military complex, Fuerte Tiuna, in an operation that exposed the deficiencies in the FANB’s military technology and defence protocols.

The military faces a crucial dilemma – make changes and serve as the guarantor of the deals fronted by the Donald Trump administration in the US and interim president Delcy Rodriguez in Caracas, or risk further US attacks and erosion of its power and status.