Analysis:Why Japan's bar for yen intervention is now higher
CNA
TOKYO, March 13 : Japan likely has less scope to intervene in the currency market than it did in the past, even as the Middle East conflict pushes the yen back towards the key 160-per-dollar line once considered the trigger threshold for authorities to act.The recent reluctance by officials to talk up the cur
TOKYO, March 13 : Japan likely has less scope to intervene in the currency market than it did in the past, even as the Middle East conflict pushes the yen back towards the key 160-per-dollar line once considered the trigger threshold for authorities to act.
The recent reluctance by officials to talk up the currency could nudge the yen as low as 165 to the dollar, some analysts say, a move that would fan import costs and broader inflation at a time the Iran war is boosting crude oil prices.
Unlike in 2022 and 2024 when Tokyo intervened to counter yen selling linked to carry trades exploiting U.S.-Japan rate gaps, the currency's recent slide below 159 is driven more by safe-haven demand for dollars and concern that surging oil costs could hurt Japan's economy.
Japanese policymakers privately say that intervening to prop up the yen now could prove futile, as such actions could be blunted by a flood of dollar demand that would only intensify if the war persists.
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