ANALYSIS: Voters surge to advance polls for a most ‘consequential’ election

Conservatives tend to outperform in advance polls versus election day. But in this "consequential" election, those in NDP and Liberal strongholds endured long lineups to vote.

In 2015, as a Liberal wave swept Justin Trudeau to a majority government, the Conservative candidate in the riding of Carleton barely managed to avoid being swamped on election day.

That candidate, Pierre Poilievre, won by just 705 votes over his Liberal rival whose support, like many Liberals across the country, was surging in the final week. The totals in Carleton: 42,428 votes cast with 46 per cent going to Poilievre. His Liberal rival, Chris Rogers, was less than three points back at 44.3 per cent.

But close as election day was, it was not so close in the advance polls. Among the 15,407 ballots cast in Carleton’s advance polls, like the ones across the country this weekend, Poilievre scored 49.6 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the Liberal at 41.5 per cent.

That trend is typical for many elections, both federal and provincial, in which small-c conservative parties tend to outperform in advance polls versus election day polls.

Doug Finley, the late former senator, managed Stephen Harper’s early campaigns and preached the benefits of a strong ground game. For Finley, a well organized get-out-the-vote effort that gets as many supporters to a ballot box as soon as a poll opens is vital to overcome a perceived advantage Liberals have with the so-called “air war” on television newscasts, newspapers and mainstream media.

Finley’s disciples from the early 2000s have spread themselves across the country, many running municipal, provincial and federal campaigns on those same core beliefs.

Finley’s heirs include Jenni Byrne, now running Poilievre’s campaign for prime minister and Nick Koolsbergen who, as campaign director for the UCP in Alberta in 2019, pounded the advance polls in that province to make Jason Kenney premier.

All of that is something to consider as Canada interprets the remarkable advance poll turnout in the 45th general election. Elections Canada said more than 2 million people cast ballots on Good Friday, the first day of advance polls, a one-day record. To put that in perspective, that’s better than 10 per cent of all votes cast in the 2021 election.