Analysis: Ruling party errors give Turkey’s opposition hope for future

Local elections point to a strengthening opposition, as external problems and internal issues cause AK Party to stumble.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled over the country for nearly two and a half decades, undefeated. In that time, elections have largely followed a similar trajectory, each strengthening his popularity and position of authority.

But a few years ago, warning signs emerged. In the 2019 local elections, Erdogan’s AK Party lost the mayoral race in four of Turkey’s largest cities, including the biggest city, Istanbul – where Erdogan made his name as mayor in the 1990s. Then, in the most recent local elections at the end of March, the results were even worse, with the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) emerging victorious again.

Two days later, Turkish press outlets reported that Erdogan had told his party’s executives that the “results demonstrate not only a defeat in the election but also the loss of the party’s soul”.

He reportedly went on to say that arrogance among his party’s representatives in both the national headquarters and local branches had become “disease-like”.

The Justice and Development Party or AK Party, which began as a grassroots movement promising to break barriers between the people and the state, has evolved, with its initial anti-status quo stance, reformist ideals, and what it represents also transforming significantly.