An Uncertain Economic Moment Poses a Big Test for the Fed

The U.S. central bank prepares to meet under a cloud of concern about the economic hit from President Trump’s tariffs.

Just days after President Trump won the 2024 election, Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, sidestepped a question about how the central bank would grapple with a toxic combination of high inflation, stagnating growth and rising unemployment.

“The whole plan is not to have stagflation,” Mr. Powell told reporters. “Knock on wood, we’ve gotten this far without seeing a real weakening in the labor market.”

Two months later, Mr. Trump’s aggressive tariff pronouncements, slash-and-burn cuts to the federal government and the resulting frenzy in financial markets have put the Fed in an incredibly uncomfortable spot.

Outright stagflation remains a remote prospect: The foundation of the U.S. economy is still solid, and it will take quite a big shock for it to crumble. But what once appeared to be a historic soft landing — with the Fed wresting control of rapid inflation while keeping the economy intact — looks increasingly vulnerable.

When the Fed wraps up its policy meeting on Wednesday, it is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. Mr. Powell recently downplayed the need for any imminent changes to borrowing costs, saying the central bank was focused on “separating the signal from the noise” when it came to the Trump administration’s policies. With the economy in a good place, he said, the Fed is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

But if the economy starts to crack and inflationary pressures grow — a situation that consumers increasingly fear — the Fed’s policy decisions will take on an entirely new degree of difficulty. That risks putting the central bank more squarely in the cross hairs of Mr. Trump.