Amid high tensions with Israel, Iran’s missile programme comes into focus

Iran's missile program poses a limited threat to Israel, with accuracy concerns raised by recent attacks and expert analysis.

As Iran threatens to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital, its long-vaunted missile programme offers one of the few ways for Tehran to strike back directly, but questions loom over just how much of a danger it poses.

The programme was behind Iran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel in April, when Iran became the first nation to launch such a barrage since Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein lobbed Scud missiles at Israel in the 1991 Gulf War.

But few of the Iranian projectiles reached their targets. Many were shot down by a U.S.-led coalition, while others apparently failed at launch or crashed while in flight. Even those that reached Israel appeared to miss their marks.

Now a new report by experts suggests one of Tehran’s most advanced missiles is far less accurate than previously thought.

The April assault showed “some ability to strike Israel,” said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who worked on the analysis. But “if I were the Supreme Leader, I would probably be a little disappointed.”

If Iranian missiles are not able to hit targets precisely “that recasts their role,” Mr. Lair added. “They’re no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons.”

Iran has repeatedly said it will retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. Israel is widely suspected of carrying out the assassination, though it has not claimed it.