American Wine Trade Steels Itself for Possible Tariffs

President-elect Trump says tariffs will help American businesses, but many in the wine industry foresee few benefits and a lot of pain for all involved.

The wine world is bracing for the potential effect of the tariffs that President-elect Donald J. Trump has said he will impose on most foreign goods coming into the United States.

Mr. Trump asserts that the tariffs will benefit American manufacturing and create jobs. But many economists and trade experts have argued that tariffs could result in higher costs and damage American businesses. Tariffs could be particularly harmful to the American wine trade.

This would be the second time Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs on wine. In October 2019, he placed a 25 percent tariff on many European foods and beverages in retaliation against the European Union over subsidies the union gave to to Airbus, the European aerospace company. That tariff caused great pain in the American wine business. They were rescinded by President Biden in 2021.

This time around, Mr. Trump has talked about tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products and 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. They would not simply raise prices on imported wines. They could result in higher prices for domestic wines if distributors raise prices to make up for loss of profits on foreign goods. They could also harm businesses throughout the industry, from farmers, producers, importers, distributors, shops and restaurants to warehouses, transport companies and label and bottle manufacturers.

Most of these are small American-owned businesses that already operate with slender profit margins and lack the resources or capital to withstand prolonged cuts in their bottom lines.

“Wine, more than almost any product, is spectacularly important for American small businesses,” said Ben Aneff, managing partner of Tribeca Wine Merchants in New York and president of the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance, which works to ensure a free-trade environment for wine.