All eyes are on Hurricane Lee in Atlantic Canada
CBC
Hurricane Lee is a powerful hurricane slowly tracking through the Caribbean.
There is good forecast model agreement that Lee will continue to track west northwest over the next few days, tracking mainly north of the Greater Antilles.
Beyond that there is still a lot of uncertainty and many questions when it comes to the storm's eventual track.
Here are the five biggest questions we will need answered over the next few days.
When will the storm turn north?
We're seeing good model agreement that the storm will turn northward at some point in the middle of next week. However, there has been a recent small shift in the guidance, that the turn northward may occur a little earlier. This is important because even a slightly earlier turn will impact the forecast moving forward.
How quickly will the storm move northward?
Where we are seeing some of the largest disagreements between the forecasts is in the forward speed of the storm following its turn to the north. The image below shows the many different model ideas for where the centre of the storm may be on the morning of Sept. 15.
This is important because the speed of the storm will determine how the storm will interact with a low-pressure trough over eastern North America.
How will the low-pressure trough impact the storm track?
Many of these questions are tied together. How Lee interacts with the trough over the Great Lakes will be critical to the forecast. The trough in question will strengthen over North America early next week as it slowly works toward the Eastern Seaboard.
The strength and placement will be important factors and remain uncertain at the moment.
How will the high-pressure ridge impact the storm track?
Perhaps most critical to the forecast will be the strength and placement of the high-pressure ridge over Atlantic Canada and the northwest Atlantic ocean through next week.
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