Alberta's population expected to hit 5 million later this decade, possibly as early as 2025
CBC
Alberta's population is expected to surpass the five-million mark later this decade — possibly as early as 2025 — according to the latest projections from the provincial government.
The projections, released this week, include three scenarios: high growth, medium growth and low growth.
Alberta's current population was estimated to be 4.7 million people, as of April 1.
Under the medium growth scenario, the population is projected to reach 5.06 million by 2027. The province's report describes that as "the most likely" scenario.
In the high growth scenario, which "anticipates higher levels of fertility and migration, as well as lower mortality rates," a little over five million people are projected to call Alberta home by 2025.
In the low growth scenario, it would take until 2029 for the population to reach that level.
The province's population is also expected to get older, more international and more urbanized in the coming years and decades.
With an average age of 39, Alberta was the youngest province in Canada in 2022.
But the population is expected to get older as birth rates decline and life expectancy increases.
"On average, a girl born in Alberta in 2022 could expect to live to 82.7 years of age, while a boy could reach 78.0 years," the province's population report reads.
"Under the medium growth scenario, life expectancy at birth for females is projected to rise to 87.4 years by 2051, while for males it is expected to reach 84.2 years."
The result is a population chart that looks less and less like a pyramid.
Instead of having larger numbers of young people (at the bottom of the chart) as it did in the past, Alberta's future population is expected to be more weighted toward older folks (at the top of the chart).
In 2022, people aged 65 and older made up about 15 per cent of the total population, according to the province's data.
The Rachel Notley government's consumer carbon tax wound up becoming a weapon the UCP wielded to drum the Alberta NDP out of office. But that levy-and-repayment program, and the wide-ranging "climate leadership plan" around it, also stood as the NDP's boldest, provincial-reputation-altering move in their single-term tenure.