Alan Cross’s 10 predictions for the world of music in 2024

Making predictions about the future is a generally silly exercise but let's go ahead anyway and prognosticate about where music will go in 2024.

As we get closer to the one-quarter mark of the 21st century, it may seem that things are changing faster than ever before, especially in the areas of culture and media. I deal with music for a living and even I can’t keep up with everything that’s going on. But I think I can see things clearly enough to make some predictions and observations for music in 2024.

In the olden days, we got all our music in measured doses by record labels, radio, music magazines, record stores and video channels. Today, everything ever recorded is available to us all the time. There’s no one place — like the radio or MuchMusic — where we all go to hear/see the artists that everyone is talking about. Consensus on what’s “good” and who’s “big” has completely broken down. There’s no centre to music anymore. With the exception of a few acts, “big” has never been smaller.

Few acts unite us as they once did. There was a time when we all ran to the record store to get that one album everyone was talking about. We handed over cold, hard cash, making a financial investment in the artist. Today, there’s so much music to choose from for zero cash layout. We spend all our time idly hitting the “skip” button. We’re all overwhelmed. Music has become devalued. Today’s stars are smaller than those from days of yore.

By way of proof, American radio chart analyst Guy Zapoleon pointed out that 2023 had fewer “consensus hits” — songs that were featured on at least 50 per cent of America’s top 40 stations — than any previous year. How many? Just 18, down from 28 in 2020.

Meanwhile, there seems to be a growing disenchantment with current music. About 75 per cent of all music consumed today is older than two years. That’s not going to change.

Recommendation algorithms used to be essential for working our way through music discovery. Now, though, they seem to be pushing us to things that are easily monetized instead of fulfilling our needs. If you feel that you’re being served up material that you don’t care about, you’re not alone.

Meanwhile, bot farms, fake streams, poor enforcement/moderation and AI clones are just going to make things even more confusing and frustrating.

TikTok has been one of the world’s most popular apps for a couple of years now. The company realizes that continued growth will depend on deeper integration of licensed music into the platform. Once it has TikTok Music, its streaming service, up and running in more countries, watch for some seismic changes in how the industry reacts.