Alan Cross: 11 predictions for music in 2022

With a new year dawning, it's time for a little prognostication on what the music industry and fans will face/endure/enjoy in 2022.

Like you, Omicron has bummed me out. Just as we thought things were getting better, COVID-19 wiggles its spikes into a new configuration and suddenly December 2021 felt a lot like March 2020. But maybe we should have seen this coming. This pandemic mirrors many of the things that happened with the great influenza pandemic in 1918-20. If this continues to hold true, then we should see a major recovery by the spring.

That’s my first prediction for 2022. Here are a few other things that I predict for the coming year.

Once TikTok struck licensing deals with the recorded music industry, the platform — now the third-largest social media network on the planet — became a huge source of revenue for labels and artists. We’ve already seen dozens of performers who blew up this way, including Olivia Rodrigo, Doja Cat, and Megan Thee Stallion. And success can come out of nowhere. Vancouver’s Mother Mother has a song called “Burning Pile” that was the sixth most-popular alternative/rock TikTok track in the universe in 2021. They released that song in 2008.

Over the last 12 months, 430 songs surpassed more than a billion views last year, three times as many as in 2020. Over 175 songs charted on the Billboard Hot 100, double that of the previous year. Expect a similar jump in 2022. When you have 755 million monthly users, many of which are looking for music, weird and wonderful things can happen. What those things may be are still TBD.

I can’t remember the last time I bought a compact disc because if I’m buying anything it’s vinyl. But thanks to worldwide production issues and material shortages, orders for new vinyl have been harder to fill and prices have skyrocketed. This admittedly is a long shot, but might the recorded industry return to the CD as a physical alternative to vinyl? Maybe — at least until the vinyl supply chain works itself out. An interesting note: The CD was first introduced to the world in late 1982, so this year marks the format’s 40th anniversary. That just screams some kind of commemoration, doesn’t it?

We saw indications of this in some parts of the world this past summer with packed arenas, stadiums, and festivals. But then Delta hit, leading to a huge jump in ticketholder no-shows (40 per cent in the U.S., up to 50 per cent in the U.K.). But once winter passes, booster shots are administered, and new treatments appear (yay, Pfizer COVID pill!), people will once again attend live music events in droves. And please don’t even bring up the idea of yet another variant to mess with our lives.

What do Paul McCartney, AC/DC, Iron Maiden, The Who, Bon Jovi, Neil Young, Fleetwood Mac, Ozzy Osbourne, U2, Aerosmith, and the Red Hot Chili Peppers have in common? None have toured since COVID-19 hit. And do you blame them? Many of these performers are in their late 60s and early 70s, and having lived lives full of sex and drugs, probably have some kind of underlying conditions. No wonder they’ve been staying home. That, however, will come to an end by mid-2022.

People have been predicting a new metaverse of music for years, but the technology is starting to catch up to the promise. Yes, more acts will continue to perform virtually in environments like Fortnite, but that’s only the beginning. As Facebook moves towards being Meta coupled with the arrival of a mixed reality headset from Apple sometime in 2022, music will be one of the gateway drugs into whatever early forms the metaverse will take.