Agent's Take: Why Aaron Rodgers opting out of 2021 season could be a nuclear play for the disgruntled QB

Sitting out the 2021 season would serve Rodgers better financially than holding out or retiring

The NFL and NFLPA agreed on June 22 to amend the adjustments to the 2020 collective bargaining agreement made last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Players have until Friday (July 2) at 4 p.m. eastern to opt out of the 2021 season by giving written notice their teams. These rules have given quarterback Aaron Rodgers a nuclear option in his well-publicized rift with the Packers that would be more advantageous to him financially than holding out or retiring .The biggest drawback to Rodgers opting out of the 2021 season voluntarily is the decision is irrevocable and final. This means Rodgers couldn't decide to play later in the season after voluntary opting out, whereas he could still play in 2021 by ending a hold out or retirement. Rodgers wouldn't be subject to a mandatory $50,000 fine for each day of training camp missed by opting out. For fining purposes under the CBA, training camp runs from the mandatory reporting date (July 27 for Green Bay) through the Sunday before the first regular-season game (Sept. 5). Skipping Green Bay's entire training camp in a holdout would cost Rodgers $2.05 million. The Packers would also have the right to start recovering a portion of the $57.5 million signing bonus Rodgers received in his 2018 contract extension with a training camp holdout and the $6.8 million roster bonus he earned in March. Recoupment would be at Green Bay's discretion. The maximum of signing bonus a team can recover in a season is the entire prorated amount for the player in that contract year, which is $11.5 million in Rodgers' case. The Packers only have rights to the roster bonus because he would be breaching his contract in the same year this money is being earned. Because of this, the Packers aren't allowed to recapture any of Rodgers' roster bonuses from 2018, 2019 and 2020. Maximum recoupment amount for 2021 is determined by dividing the $6.8 million by Rodgers' three remaining contract years, which is $2,266,666. Rodgers would have to withhold his services a significant portion of the regular season for these maximum amounts to be reached. Retirement, which would be a more expensive proposition, is reportedly an option for Rodgers, although he has previously stated on several occasions he plans on playing into his 40s. If Rodgers never returned to the NFL, the Packers would be entitled to the remaining $23 million of signing bonus proration in his 2021 and 2022 contract years as well as the $6.8 million roster bonus for a total of $29.8 million Green Bay wouldn't be allowed to recoup any of Rodgers' signing bonus with him opting out. The $6.8 million roster bonus, which is scheduled to be paid in equal installments for a 36-week period once the regular season begins, would also be off-limits for the Packers this year. The Packers would still be obligated to pay Rodgers this bonus. In all of these cases, Rodgers wouldn't earn any of his $14.7 million base salary for this year. By opting out, Rodgers would make $6.8 million thanks to the roster bonus. A lengthy holdout would cost Rodgers $15,816,666 if Green Bay exercised its rights to the fullest extent with recoupment and he complied through payment. The difference in the two approaches, opting out versus a holdout, is $22,616,666.