A Non-MAGA Republican’s Late Surge In Ohio Is Scrambling A Key Senate Primary

It has Donald Trump's allies working overtime against establishment-friendly Matt Dolan, who may beat Trump's pick in the race. And even Dolan seems surprised.

BLUE ASH, Ohio — Not even Matt Dolan seems entirely sure what’s behind his late surge in the GOP Senate primary to determine who’ll face endangered Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown in November.

“You build a campaign to win, and a lot of that is behind the scenes and it starts percolating, and you peak at the right time,” said Dolan, a 59-year-old state senator and multimillionaire lawyer whom polls have deadlocked with or slightly ahead of the Donald Trump-backed candidate in the race, Bernie Moreno.

That Dolan even seems to be within striking distance of the nomination in a red state, as the kind of Republican who says he likes the former president’s policies but not his personality, feels like a violation of GOP physics. And yet it’s the dynamic that’s defining this race in its final days, with implications for Trump’s ability to elevate his preferred candidates and win a Senate majority as he pursues yet another presidential bid.

“There’s some tarnish on that shine,” said Scott Milburn, a longtime Ohio GOP consultant who’s supporting Dolan, of the diminishing returns on Trump’s endorsements since the 2022 midterms. “Trump is still the gorilla in the room — but he’s probably not the 800-pound gorilla. He’s more like the 650-pound gorilla.”

That’s just one theory behind Dolan’s power in the polls — something akin to the Nikki Haley effect, which showed that up to 40% of the GOP primary electorate was open to turning the page on Trump and his “Make America Great Again,” or MAGA, movement. There’s no clear consensus on what’s driving Dolan, whether it’s more about Moreno’s weaknesses or Dolan’s strengths, or the plurality of voters who still haven’t made up their minds in what’s set to be a low-turnout election, with Trump already the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.