A massive day for the US economy is coming: What to watch
CNN
The CPI report and Fed policy meeting have fallen on the same day just seven times since 2014, according to Bank of America.
A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link. Wall Street is being dealt a rare double feature of economic news on Wednesday, when an inflation report is due in the morning and the Federal Reserve is expected to announce what it will do with its key interest rate in the afternoon. What to expect: Investors will parse the May Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday morning, just hours before the Fed is slated to announce its monetary policy update. The CPI report and Fed’s policy meeting have fallen on the same day just seven times since 2014, according to Bank of America. Despite the rare event, it’s unlikely the stock market will swing widely because of the economic two-fer, some investors say. “The things that could drive volatility higher would be if Chair Powell was to say something unexpected; I think that is of a very low probability,” wrote Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, in a Monday note. But if “inflation metrics come out much higher than expected, that could lead to a small sell-off. How much the market sells off would depend on how much above consensus inflation is running.” The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold this month. Some analysts say upcoming CPI data won’t alter the Fed’s June decision, unless it shows a huge deceleration or acceleration in inflation. But the metric will still help guide the Fed’s decisions during the second half of the year. “The number of rate cuts the Fed will actually be able to deliver this year will depend heavily on the outlook for inflation; if it remains stickier, investors may want to temper their expectations for easing for 2024,” wrote Glenmede’s investment strategy team in a Monday note.
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