3 reasons the Bank of Canada may be set to pause interest rate hikes

It's been almost exactly one year since the Bank of Canada began aggressively raising its key overnight lending rate. Since then, Canadian households have struggled with ever-increasing debt payments. Borrowing costs are up a stunning 425 basis points in the last 12 months.

But the days of relentless rate hikes may be about to draw to a close. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada unveils its latest interest rate policy. Many expect it to make good on a promise to hit the pause button.

"The bank will almost certainly hold the key overnight rate at 4.50 per cent on March 8," said James Laird, CEO of Ratehub.ca and president of mortgage lender CanWise Financial.

In January, the central bank raised its key interest rate to 4.5 per cent, but it also indicated it was ready to end its year-long series of rate hikes.

"If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR [Monetary Policy Report] outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases," the Bank of Canada wrote in its official statement.

That's a pretty significant caveat.

Since the bank's last decision on Jan. 25, we have seen job numbers, GDP data, home sales statistics and, of course, inflation numbers.

The consumer price index spent most of the last several decades lumbering along between one and two per cent. As the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic began to take hold, inflation began to climb.

At first it was dismissed by many as merely "transitory." But prices never got the memo and just kept climbing. The year-over-year rate eventually peaked at 8.1 per cent last June.

By then, central banks everywhere were aggressively boosting interest rates. Global supply chain issues were coming under control, and the worldwide price of oil had begun to come down off the heights it reached after Russia invaded Ukraine one year ago.

By last week, the CPI had decelerated to 5.9 per cent annualized. The shorter trends were slowing even more.

Food prices are still way too high, but the overall trend was seen as a clear positive by economists like TD's Leslie Preston.

"This was another step in the right direction and in inflation starting to come down, so I was relieved to see it move in the right direction," Preston told CBC News.

More recently, we've seen Canada's economic growth data come in weaker than expected.