3 in 10 Albertans would vote for independence — but only half committed to separating: poll

Ipsos said for about half of separatist supporters, independence is more a political message to Ottawa than a plan they are prepared to suffer costs and sacrifices to achieve.

Every day across Alberta, groups are gathering to sign a petition to force a vote on the province leaving Canada — but when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.

That’s according to new data released by Ipsos after it polled about 2,000 Canadians, between Jan. 9 and 14, as part of its Confederation Stress Test study.

The pollster asked about 500 people each in Alberta and Quebec about independence and found that while initial support in both provinces is about three in 10 residents, a deeper dive revealed that support in the Prairie province varies.

When asked if they would vote for their province to begin the process of separating from Canada and seeking a new agreement to define its future relationship with the country, approximately 29 per cent of people in Alberta and 31 per cent in Quebec said yes. (Ipsos said that includes those who would definitely or probably vote yes, and those who say they would lean towards it.)

However, the Ipsos research that “stress-tested” those sentiments by introducing real-world consequences revealed that actual committed support for separation is roughly half the levels in both provinces.

Only 15 to 16 per cent of Albertans and Quebecers maintained their support after considering possible downsides such as standard of living declines, pension losses or trade renegotiations.

The stress test methodology, which Ipsos said asked separatist supporters whether they would maintain their position under five different challenging conditions unique to each province, revealed nearly identical patterns.

In Alberta, there are three distinct kinds of separatists: committed, conditional and symbolic.