100 Days of War: Amid Russia-Ukraine war, food security crisis only set to worsen

The production of wheat and rice is set to fall in 2022, which will push a large section of the population to the brink of extreme food insecurity.

Of the three food items — wheat, corn, and rice — which account for nearly 40 per cent of the world’s calorie intake, the production of two is set to fall slightly in 2022.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s estimates, wheat production is set to drop by 0.51 per cent or four million tonnes this year. Similarly, a marginal dip is expected in corn production. However, rice output is expected to touch a record high of 515 million tonnes.

While fall is expected to be marginal, the growing unaffordability of commonly used food items has pushed a large section of the population to the brink of extreme food insecurity.

The price of wheat, for instance, has gone up by 91 per cent globally since January 2021, according to World Bank data. Maize became 55 per cent more expensive in the same period.

Sections of the population more at risk of food price shocks are those who spend a sizable chunk of their average consumer spending on buying essential items. A paper by the Boston Consulting Group reckons that as many as 45 countries — mostly located in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America — “are enduring some of the worst effects of the crisis.”

Yemen, Lebanon, Haiti, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Ethiopia, and Sudan are some of the countries where a combination of factors like “heavy reliance on food imports, high import bills, high inflation, a high debt burden, climate risks, and civil unrest” will likely aggravate the situation, the BCG paper observed.

The Russia-Ukraine war has been a major factor. The two countries locked in a war for nearly 100 days now are major exporters of corn and wheat, two of the most commonly used food items globally.