Alberta has seen roughly 10,000 'excess' deaths since 2020, and COVID doesn't explain it all
CBC
The number of Albertans who died over the last three years was significantly higher than what would be considered normal for that stretch of time, and not all of that increase is attributed to COVID-19 deaths, according to new data from Statistics Canada.
Weekly death estimates from the federal agency show there were 9,821 extra deaths over the course of the pandemic, from early 2020 to the first week of November 2022. That is, close to 10,000 more people died than what would normally be expected for the same time period. Researchers call this number excess deaths.
The official count of COVID deaths suggests the disease is responsible for a large proportion of excess deaths. Alberta Health data shows 5,277 people died of COVID-19 between January 2020 and early November 2022.
But experts say COVID-19 numbers miss the true loss of life that has occurred since 2020. They point to a variety of potential factors for the other deaths, including the province's toxic drugs crisis and an under-pressure medical system.
Others argue Alberta is undercounting COVID-19 deaths.
But regardless of how the deaths are counted, it's important to know what's happening so as to better address the root issues, according to a Calgary doctor who has spent countless hours with COVID patients.
"We get into semantics of dying with COVID, or dying of COVID," said University of Calgary public health researcher Dr. Gabriel Fabreau.
"And really, it's irrelevant from a health-systems perspective, or the health of a population perspective. Many more people are dying that shouldn't be dying."
Demographers say some excess deaths can be attributed to an aging, growing population. But the last three years saw a significant jump in overall deaths.
Not everyone agrees on the number of excess deaths in the province. There are varying methodologies for calculating this number. Estimates of excess deaths do vary.
Tara Moriarty, an infectious disease researcher and associate professor at the University of Toronto, pegs the number of excess deaths in Alberta at 10,232.
She believes underreporting is one reason for the elevated excess death numbers in most provinces, including Alberta.
In her latest report, Moriarty estimates that Alberta is missing thousands of deaths for the Omicron period (December 2021 to November 2022) of the pandemic.
She estimates the number of cases and deaths based on the infection rate of the population on a given date. That expected case and death ratio is based on jurisdictions with more detailed COVID testing and data sharing such as Quebec and the U.K. — jurisdictions where excess deaths more closely match COVID deaths, she says.